External Actor Involvement in Myanmar Conflict Negotiations: China’s Mediation with the Three Brotherhood Alliance Post-Coup 2021
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study aims to analyze China’s role as an external mediator in the Myanmar conflict following the 2021 military coup and the military operations of the Three Brothers Alliance. The study examines China’s transformation from a policy of non-intervention to active diplomatic engagement and its impact on regional stability. The theoretical framework used is mediation theory, specifically Zartman's concept of Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS), which explains that effective mediation occurs when the conflicting parties recognize the losses caused by the continuation of the conflict and are motivated to negotiate. This theoretical framework helps to understand China’s mediation strategy in facilitating dialogue amid the complex political and military stalemate in Myanmar. This study uses a qualitative library research method by analyzing secondary data from academic journals, policy reports, and reliable media sources such as The Irrawaddy, Reuters, and Al Jazeera. Thematic analysis is applied to identify patterns of China’s diplomatic, military, and economic involvement. The main findings reveal that China’s military and economic support has strengthened the political legitimacy of Myanmar's military junta, increased Myanmar's economic dependence on China’s, and exacerbated tensions with ethnic groups in Myanmar. Regionally, China’s influence has deepened divisions within ASEAN, affected relations with India, and heightened security tensions in the region.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
AFP In Yangon. (2024). Myanmar Junta And Armed Rebels Agree Ceasefire. Guardian. Https://Www.Theguardian.Com/World/2024/Jan/12/Myanmar-Junta-And-Armed-Rebels-Agree-Ceasefire
Agence France-Presse. (2023). China Brokers Talks In Myanmar Between Military Junta And Rebel Groups That Yield ‘Positive Results.’ South China Morning Post. Https://Www.Scmp.Com/News/Asia/Southeast-Asia/Article/3244699/China-Brokers-Talks-Myanmar-Between-Military-Junta-And-Rebel-Groups-Yield-Positive-Results
Al Jazeera. (2024). What Is Myanmar’s Three Brotherhood Alliance That’s Resisting The Military? | Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera.
Aljazzera. (2024a). China Steps Up Armed Patrols On Border As Myanmar Conflict Deepens. Aljazzera. Https://Www.Aljazeera.Com/News/2024/8/26/China-Steps-Up-Armed-Patrols-On-Border-As-Myanmar-Conflict-Deepens
Aljazzera. (2024b). What Is Myanmar’s Three Brotherhood Alliance That’s Resisting The Military? Aljazzera. Https://Www.Aljazeera.Com/News/2024/1/16/What-Is-Myanmars-Three-Brotherhood-Alliance-Thats-Resisting-The-Military
Antara News. (2024). China: Junta Militer Myanmar Dan Aliansi Etnis Capai Gencatan Senjata. Antara News. Https://Www.Antaranews.Com/Berita/3913641/China-Junta-Militer-Myanmar-Dan-Aliansi-Etnis-Capai-Gencatan-Senjata
Antonio Graceffo. (2024). Myanmar Civil War Casts Shadow Over China’s CMEC Corridor. Geopolitical Monitor. Https://Www.Geopoliticalmonitor.Com/Myanmar-Civil-War-Casts-Shadow-Over-Chinas-Cmec-Corridor/
Ap News. (2024). Myanmar’s Military Says It And Ethnic Guerrilla Groups Have Agreed To An Immediate Cease-Fire. Ap News. Https://Apnews.Com/Article/Myanmar-China-Ceasefire-Guerrillas-B60aa673a2fc38cd04e7dd781e3625c5
Aung Thura Ko Ko. (2024). Myanmar’s Rapidly Changing Security Landscape And Operation 1027. Pacific Forum. Https://Pacforum.Org/Publications/Pacnet-56-Myanmars-Rapidly-Changing-Security-Landscape-And-Operation-1027/
Brian Cicheru Kinyua. (2022). China’s Access To The Indian Ocean Via Myanmar Is Almost Complete. The Maritime Executive. Https://Maritime-Executive.Com/Editorials/China-S-Access-To-The-Indian-Ocean-Via-Myanmar-Is-Almost-Complete
Bünte, M. (2021). Myanmar: Civil–Military Relations In A Tutelary Regime. Oxford Research Encyclopedia Of Politics, 28. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.1093/Acrefore/9780190228637.013.1887
Chetan Rana. (2025). China Is Hedging In Myanmar By Leveraging Its Influence. 9 Dish Line. Https://Www.9dashline.Com/Article/China-Is-Hedging-In-Myanmar-By-Leveraging-Its-Influence#:~:Text=China And Myanmar Share A,Eaos On The Burmese Side.
CNBC Indonesia. (2025). China Turun Tangan Di Perang Saudara Tetangga RI, Perdamaian Tercipta? CNBC Indonesia. Https://Www.Cnbcindonesia.Com/News/20250422181451-4-627880/China-Turun-Tangan-Di-Perang-Saudara-Tetangga-Ri-Perdamaian-Tercipta
Devjyot Ghoshal, Poppy Mcpherson, A. L. And N. A. (2025). Insight: Myanmar Rebels Disrupt China Rare Earth Trade, Sparking Regional Scramble. Reuters. Https://Www.Reuters.Com/World/Asia-Pacific/Myanmar-Rebels-Disrupt-China-Rare-Earth-Trade-Sparking-Regional-Scramble-2025-03-28/
Firnas, M. A., & Rizky, K. (2023). Krisis Politik Myanmar: Masa Depan Demokrasi Pasca Kudeta Militer. Intermestic: Journal Of International Studies, 7(2), 600–617. Https://Doi.Org/10.24198/Intermestic.V7n2.10
FP Staff. (2024). “String Of Pearls”: How China-Made Kyaukphyu Port In Myanmar Threatens India’s Nuclear Attack Submarine Base. Firstpost. Https://Www.Firstpost.Com/World/String-Of-Pearls-How-China-Made-Kyaukphyu-Port-In-Myanmar-Threatens-Indias-Nuclear-Attack-Submarine-Base-13588512.Html
Global Times. (2025). Myanmar Govt And MNDAA Sign Ceasefire Agreement With China’s Mediation: Chinese FM. Global Times. Https://Www.Globaltimes.Cn/Page/202501/1327228.Shtml
Group, I. C. (2024). Ethnic Autonomy And Its Consequences In Post-Coup Myanmar. Https://Www.Jstor.Org/Stable/Resrep60218?Seq=1
Hak Yin Li & Yongnian Zheng. (2009). Re-Interpreting China’s Non-Intervention Policy Towards Myanmar: Leverage, Interest And Intervention. Journal Of Contemporary China, 18(61), 617–637. Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/10670560903033901
Handoyono. (2025). Milisi Pro-China Amankan Kendali Atas Tambang Logam Langka Di Myanmar. Intenational Kontan. Https://Internasional.Kontan.Co.Id/News/Milisi-Pro-China-Amankan-Kendali-Atas-Tambang-Logam-Langka-Di-Myanmar
Indra Overland & Roman Vakulchuk. (2024). Road Through A Broken Place: The BRI In Post-Coup Myanmar. The Pacific Review, 0(0), 1–25. Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/09512748.2024.2420929
Ingyin Naing. (2024). China Backs Myanmar Military Amid Growing Border Tensions. Voa America. Https://Www.Voanews.Com/A/China-Backs-Myanmar-Military-Amid-Growing-Border-Tensions/7857417.Html
Jason Tower. (2024). Myanmar’s Collapsing Military Creates A Crisis On China’s Border. United States Institute Of Peace. Https://Www.Usip.Org/Publications/2024/04/Myanmars-Collapsing-Military-Creates-Crisis-Chinas-Border
Jason Tower & Priscilla A. Clapp. (2021). Myanmar: China, The Coup And The Future. United States Institute Of Peace.
John W. Creswell, J. D. C. (2022). Research Design Qualitative, Quantitative, And Mixed Methods Approaches (6th Ed.). SAGE Publications, Inc. Https://Uk.Sagepub.Com/En-Gb/Asi/Research-Design/Book270550
Jonathan Head. (2025). Trump Presides Over Thai-Cambodia “Peace Deal” - But What Does It Mean? Bbc. Https://Www.Bbc.Com/News/Articles/C93dy2kk7vzo
Jose Setiawan, T., & Winata Bachtiar, J. (2022). Myanmar’S Dilemma In The United States-China Rivalry In Southeast Asia. Malaysian Journal Of International Relations, 10, 79–93. Https://Ejournal.Um.Edu.My/Index.Php/Mjir/Article/Download/36638/15237/100654
Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, N. L. (2023). ‘Operation 1027’: A Turning-Point For Myanmar’s Resistance Struggle? The Diplomat. Https://Thediplomat.Com/2023/10/Operation-1027-A-Turning-Point-For-Myanmars-Resistance-Struggle/#:~:Text=Pada Pagi Hari Tanggal 27 Oktober%2C Pasukan,Titik Balik Dalam Perjuangan Bersenjata Negara Tersebut.&Text=Lebih Jauh%2C NUG Dan Pasukan Pro-Demokrasi
Latt, L. C. (2022). China ’ S Involvement In Myanmar ’ S Peace Negotiations : An Analysis With Special Emphasis On The Non-Interference Principle. Journal Of The Asia-Japan Research Institute Of Ritsumeikan University, 4, 85–107. Https://Www.Jstage.Jst.Go.Jp/Article/Asiajapan/4/0/4_85/_Pdf
Laura Zhou. (2024). China Brokers Myanmar Ceasefire, Urges Junta And Rebel Militia To ‘Exercise Maximum Restraint.’ South China Morning Post. Https://Www.Scmp.Com/News/China/Diplomacy/Article/3248278/China-Brokers-Myanmar-Ceasefire-Urges-Junta-And-Rebel-Militia-Exercise-Maximum-Restraint
Lim, S. B. (2021). Meneliti Hubungan Antara Persenjataan Logam Tanah Jarang Tiongkok Dan Kudeta Militer Myanmar. Jurnal Studi Regional Dunia, 39(4), 83–110. Https://Scholar.Kyobobook.Co.Kr/Article/Detail/4010028713350
Lucas Myers. (2020). The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor And China’s Determination To See It Through. Asia Dispatches. Https://Www.Wilsoncenter.Org/Blog-Post/China-Myanmar-Economic-Corridor-And-Chinas-Determination-See-It-Through
Lucas Myers. (2024). China Is Off The Fence In Myanmar. War On The Roks. Https://Warontherocks.Com/2024/11/China-Is-Off-The-Fence-In-Myanmar/
Mahmud, K. U. (2025). Arakan Army ’ S Strategic Mastery In Rakhine. New Age, 1–15. Https://Doi.Org/Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.2139/Ssrn.5378804
Miemie Winn Byrd. (2024). Dukungan Beijing Terhadap Junta Militer Myanmar Memicu Kebencian Dan Perlawanan. Indo Pacific Defence Forum. Https://Ipdefenseforum.Com/Id/2024/09/Dukungan-Beijing-Terhadap-Junta-Militer-Myanmar-Memicu-Kebencian-Dan-Perlawanan/
Nguyễn, A. C., Phạm, M. T., Nguyễn, V. H., & Trần, B. H. (2024). Explaining The Increase Of China’s Power In The South China Sea Through International Relation Theories. Cogent Arts And Humanities, 11(1). Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/23311983.2024.2383107
Nyat Thit. (2024). How Operation 1027 Transformed War Against Myanmar Junta. The Irrawaddy.
Pascal Abb. (2025). The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor And The Limits Of China’s BRI Agency. The Diplomat. Https://Thediplomat.Com/2025/02/The-China-Myanmar-Economic-Corridor-And-The-Limits-Of-Chinas-Bri-Agency/
Prajuli, W. A. (2015). China Threat Perceptions In Southeast Asia: Problems Of Bilateral Interactions. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 15(1). Https://Doi.Org/10.7454/Global.V15i1.18
Reutres. (2023). Myanmar Military Meets Rebel Groups With China’s Help - Junta Spokesperson. Reutres. Https://Www.Reuters.Com/World/Asia-Pacific/Myanmar-Military-Meets-Rebel-Groups-With-Chinas-Help-Junta-Spokesperson-2023-12-11/
Rfa Burmese. (2024). Myanmar Junta, Resistance Officials Attend China-Brokered Peace Talks. Radio Free Asia. Https://Www.Rfa.Org/English/News/Myanmar/Three-Brotherhood-Alliance-Talks-03042024062919.Html
Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto. (2023). Ketegangan Di Laut China Selatan, Ketahanan Regional ASEAN, Dan Peran Indonesia. Forum Sosiologi. Https://Www.Forumsinologi.Id/Fsi-Analysis/Ketegangan-Di-Laut-China-Selatan-Ketahanan-Regional-Asean-Dan-Peran-Indonesia
Rozak, A. (2024). Kudeta Militer Di Myanmar Dan Prinsip Non-Intervensi ASEAN. Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin, 3(2), 113–119. Https://Ulilalbabinstitute.Id/Index.Php/JIM/Article/Download/2640/2259/5589
Sebastian Strangio. (2025). China Pressuring Two Major Myanmar Armed Groups To Halt Offensives. The Diplomat. Https://Thediplomat.Com/2025/06/China-Pressuring-Two-Major-Myanmar-Armed-Groups-To-Halt-Offensives/
Shoon Naing, Wa Lone, D. G. (2024). Insight: How An Anxious China Is Backing Myanmar’s Faltering Junta In Civil War. Reuters. Https://Www.Reuters.Com/World/Asia-Pacific/How-An-Anxious-China-Is-Backing-Myanmars-Faltering-Junta-Civil-War-2024-10-25/
Simon Lewis. (2023). UN Expert Says Russia, China Sending Deadly Aid To Myanmar’s Military. Reutres. Https://Www.Reuters.Com/World/Un-Expert-Says-Russia-China-Sending-Deadly-Aid-Myanmars-Military-2023-05-17/
Simoniya, A. A. (2021). Myanmar 2021: Military Coup As Tragic Recurrence Of Old Scenario. South East Asia: Actual Problems Of Development, 2(51), 155–165. Https://Doi.Org/10.31696/2072-8271-2021-2-2-51-155-165
Sun Mon Thant. (2025). China’s Tightrope Walk: Mediating In Myanmar. Low Institue. Https://Www.Lowyinstitute.Org/The-Interpreter/China-S-Tightrope-Walk-Mediating-Myanmar
Thant Aung. (2024). China In Myanmar: How The Game-Changing Neighbor Would Continue To Maintain Its Influence. Stimson. Https://Www.Stimson.Org/2024/China-In-Myanmar-How-The-Game-Changing-Neighbor-Would-Continue-To-Maintain-Its-Influence/
The Irrawaddy. (2024a). Junta Boss’ Belt And Road Promise To China Is A Ploy: Analysts. The Irrawaddy. Https://Www.Irrawaddy.Com/Opinion/Analysis/Junta-Boss-Belt-And-Road-Promise-To-China-Is-A-Ploy-Analysts.Html
The Irrawaddy. (2024b). Myanmar Junta Designates Brotherhood Alliance Members ‘Terrorist’ Groups. The Irrawaddy. Https://Www.Irrawaddy.Com/News/Ethnic-Issues/Myanmar-Junta-Designates-Brotherhood-Alliance-Members-Terrorist-Groups.Html
Thida, H. M. (2021). PEOPLE ’ S PERCEPTION OF THE ROLE OF FOREIGN POWER IN MYANMAR : A CASE STUDY OF THE 2021 MILITARY COUP. INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, 127–140. Https://Www.Academia.Edu/Download/83246192/FPR_2021_3_Beliv_127_140.Pdf
USIP Senior Study Group. (2018). China’s Role In Myanmar’s Internal Conflicts. United States Institute Of Peace.
Velasco, Joseph Ching. (2023). Southeast Asian Regionalism: An Examination Of The Progress And Priorities Of ASEAN Through Its Joint Communiqués. Journal Of ASEAN Studies, 11(2), 245–265. Https://Doi.Org/10.21512/Jas.V11i2.9402
Wening Tyas. (2024). The Impact Of The 2021 Military Coup On Myanmar ’ S Foreign Military Policy. Journal Ilmu Sosial Mamangan, 13(2), 143–160. Https://Doi.Org/Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.22202/Mamangan.V13i2.883
Xinhua. (2024). Update: Myanmar Military, Ethnic Armed Groups Reach Ceasefire Under China’s Mediation. Xinhua. Https://English.News.Cn/20240112/449ecdcb3f79406e8f76def2ea13c72a/C.Html
Yuka Kobayashi. (2022). Myanmar’s Strategy In The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor: A Failure In Hedging? International Affairs, 98(3), 1013–1032. Https://Doi.Org/10.1093/Ia/Iiac049
Zachary Abuza, N. N. T. A. (2025). Too Little, Too Late: China Steps Up Military Aid To Myanmar’s Junta. Timson. Https://Www.Stimson.Org/2025/Too-Little-Too-Late-China-Steps-Up-Military-Aid-To-Myanmars-Junta/
Zartman, I. W. (2007). Negotiation And Conflict Management: Essays On Theory And Practice. In Negotiation And Conflict Management: Essays On Theory And Practice. Security And Conflict Management. Https://Doi.Org/10.4324/9780203945254
Zartman, I. W., & Touval, S. (1985). International Mediation: Conflict Resolution And Power Politics. Journal Of Social Issues, 41(2), 27–45. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/J.1540-4560.1985.Tb00853.X